About

A local play-money prediction market for testing ideas and forecasting outcomes.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Prediction markets can be very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Why use play money?

Schilling (S) is the play-money currency used to bet here. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with S1,000 for free.

Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

How do I win cash prizes?

This local instance is for play-money forecasting and experimentation.

No purchase necessary—you can claim a free entry once per drawing. Winners will need a crypto wallet to receive their winnings.

Enter the current prize drawing →